Forecasters begin their yearly extrapolation of existing trends and pass it off as a genuine forecast.
A few weeks ago I announced that I began a new position as Market InSite's Chief Economist. When people hear about what I do, one of the first questions they ask is "what's going to happen in the real estate market?" I never answer this question directly. I usually tell them it depends on what happens with job growth, income growth, and mortgage interest rates. So far, I haven't been asked to issue a forecast, and I hope they don't. I could issue a forecast. I'm fully capable of projecting future performance by examining past trends, but is that really forecasting? In my opinion, extrapolating recent trends or projecting past norms to next year's performance isn't forecasting at all. It's little better than flipping a[READ MORE]